COPA Migration 2020, thoughts

COPA Migrations
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Speaking only for myself, the risk I’m trying to mitigate regarding Migration-18 is not merely becoming ill or afflicting others, but also not having much fun!

While I must accept a level of risk, and may likely be forced to endure poor service, limited facilities, and stringent safety measures during the normal course of business travel, a vacation under those conditions is less appealing to me.

I registered yesterday, and have had my hotel reservations confirmed since mid April, while I could go on and on about the many reasons I may not attend, the reasons for registering are quite simple.

  1. I want to go!
  2. Erik & Dennis have exhibited a passion and commitment to make this event a success and I trust in their spirit and ability. (My apologies to those of you I’m leaving out of my remarks, I’m certain this has been a Herculean effort on the part of COPA and my sincere gratitude extends to all of you!)
  3. COPA has guaranteed us an out, doesn’t get much better than that!

We all understand safety is about mitigating risk, when we plan a flight our goal is to reach our destination safely, and to that end we make decisions based on analysis, our capabilities, and the risks associated with that flight.

Migration, like any social gathering, is about having fun, that is the destination so to speak, and I will analyze, contemplate and decide my actions in much the same way I would a flight in that regard, but the objective will not be to survive the event, but to enjoy it!

I’m rooting for a successful M18, I am looking forward to sharing good times and tall tales with my fellow COPAns in October!

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62

Well, um, no. Risk is an incredibly slippery concept - difficult to work with, nonlinear, truly unquantifiable at times, and in this instance, impacted by chaotic feedback effects.

But that’s perhaps not a useful argument to have in this forum.

I’m not usually a fan, but it’s worth following Nissim Taleb’s work on COVID-19 policy. This Medium post is a good start. (Taleb’s prone to overdoing invective, but once you wade through droplets, there’re pearls.)

I love Migrations and have attended a few. This one seemed worth flying commercial to. Given the current state of affairs, there is zero chance I will attend. I would not advice anyone I hold in any regard, or even JuanK, to do so.

From yesterday’s Travax:

In the U.S., on July 1, the 5 most affected states were: Texas (> 8,200 cases; > 40 deaths), Florida (> 6,500 cases; > 40 deaths), California (> 6,400 cases; > 80 deaths), Arizona (> 4,800 cases; > 80 deaths), and Georgia (> 2,900 cases; > 20 deaths). Cumulatively, since January 21, more than 2.8 million cases and more than 131,100 deaths have been reported in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., mainly in New York (> 419,300 cases; > 32,100 deaths), California (> 239,100 cases; > 6,100 deaths), New Jersey (> 177,200 cases; > 15,200 deaths), Texas (> 175,500 cases; > 2,500 deaths), and Florida (> 169,100 cases; > 3,600 deaths). On June 25, those younger than 18 years accounted for 5.4% of all cases, ages 18-64 years for 74.5%, and ages ≥ 65 years for 20.1%; in contrast, those aged ≥ 65 years account for over 80% of deaths nationwide.

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63

Sanjay,

I’m shocked. You used “advice”, a noun, when you clearly meant “advise” a verb. What is the world coming to?

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64

You know, I used to care. But since I read today’s COPA email, I realized that if it didn’t work for Tillerson or Mattis, who am I to dream that I can make a difference?

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65

No question. It’s a losing battle. But don’t feel bad, even Gordon slips up occasionally.

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I-am-Spartacus-450x253

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67

Well the questions, comments, and opinions start to roll in:

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68

What was that someone once said about opinions…

O’ yea they’re like birthdays, everybody has one, whoever wrote you that message showed some real birthday spirit!

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69

“We will Live steam the Annual Meeting”. Sounds painful.

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70

Well, that might depend, you know…

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71

Yup. That’s exactly the kind of thing I was afraid of.

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More like “constantly.”

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73

Maybe. But when it’s done, COPA leadership will assuredly receive obediance from the otherwise recalcitrant membership.

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Proof reading… not my strong suit!

I did send to the BOD for review, but all gave me the thumbs up… ohh well.

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OK. You are all right!!! Life has risks
The community is relatively small
The event is not in “all of Florida”. It’s in a beach community, with lots of fresh air and an ocean breeze.
We are setting up protocol consistent with established standards and likely even more conservative.
Everyone gets temperature checked.
In short, we have learned a lot about what constitutes “reasonable” and we will do it. Why? Because we are professionals. We do pre-flights; we train and maintain standards; we are careful.
Personally, I’m more concerned that there isn’t a control tower and the runway is only 5,000 ft long. Ya know some need it to be longer.

Anyhow, what do y’all think about having a MASK CONTEST?
Most decorated
Most creative
Perhaps we could even get a Sponsor to print masks that say, “Living the Cirrus Covid Life”
I’m gonna be careful, but I won’t live my life in fear. It’s just not who I am.

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76

I’m there if it happens, taking all the smart precautions. Appreciate you guys pushing ahead with this…

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77

I like it!

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78

Where it . . . I dare ya. Show me how to connect my O2 cannula to it and I’ll patent it for ya.

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79

I accept…

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My entry

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