Sr22 and beyond

I received my SR22 package a day or two ago. It looks to me like an accomodating offer for SR20 position holders. As I see it they are offering current sr20 customers the chance to “step up,” using their existing contract price–not the present SR20 price for new customers–as the basis for determining their SR22 price. (If I read it correctly the CPI inflation rider clock does start ticking again, though–am I wrong?). I think CD didn’t have to do this and I appreciate the gesture. It does benefit both customers who would like increased performance and CD who would like (need?) increased margins.

My guess is that at least half of current SR20 orders will convert to the SR22. Especially out west, the increased load-carrying capability and improved density altitude performance will make it a real family airplane which can go almost anywhere under most altitude and temperature conditions. As for me, I will probably convert my position, given the loads and density altitude conditions which my flying often entails. And dare I say it, I think an sr22 position would be more “marketable” for the next couple of years for those who would decide to sell. However, when and if a 200 hp turbo-diesel is installed in the SR20, that could change.

To be honest, I don’t care so much about the extra speed. On a typical 350 nm trip it would only make 10 minutes’ difference. It would be the A configuration, as I feel that the Sandel HSI and 55 autopilot are expensive additions that I would just hardly ever need. (Readers of this forum have already seen my tiresome diatribes about the questionable value/utility of an HSI in a plane with THREE color moving maps…)

The SR22 does offer an excellent value compared to any other current production plane with comparable performance which would be $100-200K more. Say g’nite Mooney, Commander, Socata…The Columbia 300 would be more of a competitor, but it doesn’t yet qualify as a “production” plane… CD should keep their lines running well for the next several years with the SR20/22 offerings. They will no doubt sell 100’s, maybe low 1000’s of planes.

So looking ahead, what would it take to sell 10,000’s or more planes? I think “the money is out there,” but GA needs to become more attractive to a broader customer base. CD is already going a long way to overcome the public perception that flying is too dangerous. Advanced avionics are making it easier to navigate and fly. Also needed in GA are (a) increased product quality & reliability, comparable to today’s automobiles; (b) less hassle associated with ownership, operation, storage, etc. (a) has been discussed before here, but (b) not so much.

These days, TIME is as much of a concern to the potential larger market segment as money. For those of us for whom flying is a PASSION, it’s a labor of love :-). For the potential broader market, the time which one has to spend on looking after an airplane and its care, feeding, storage, and maintenance are discouraging factors I’m sure. What do you folks all think? I have wondered whether small airplane MANAGED fractional ownerships, or higher-end flying clubs (what the hell, let’s say $800-1000/month membership, then pay only for fuel; planes maintained to near-part 135 standards and kept clean; serious recurrency requirements for members) would bring a lot more people into GA. GA needs this to happen.

Kevin —

Great analysis!

Cirrus has a big big opportunity , thanks to the market dynamics you mention: growing affluence, disgust with commercial travel, etc.

The keys to selling 10,000 planes are:

  1. Safety

  2. Ease of use, including Alan K.'s dream of “hard IFR for the masses.” Safe and easy IFR flying would be really cool!

  3. Low operating costs. Planes that don’t break all time. Low insurance costs. Some easier form of maintenance than now exists.

Cirrus shares this vision. I’m impressed when Alan K. says his competition is not Lancair or the Wichita gang, but vacation homes, boating, and other pursuits of the upper middle class.

As for life after SR22, I’d like to see Cirrus produce a small turbine six seater for $500K. Not sure I could afford to buy it myself, but small single turbines is where high performance is going. The piston twin is dead.

RK

P.S. Thanks for the ride in your 260e STOL! What a neat plane!

I received my SR22 package a day or two ago. It looks to me like an accomodating offer for SR20 position holders. As I see it they are offering current sr20 customers the chance to “step up,” using their existing contract price–not the present SR20 price for new customers–as the basis for determining their SR22 price. (If I read it correctly the CPI inflation rider clock does start ticking again, though–am I wrong?). I think CD didn’t have to do this and I appreciate the gesture. It does benefit both customers who would like increased performance and CD who would like (need?) increased margins.

My guess is that at least half of current SR20 orders will convert to the SR22. Especially out west, the increased load-carrying capability and improved density altitude performance will make it a real family airplane which can go almost anywhere under most altitude and temperature conditions. As for me, I will probably convert my position, given the loads and density altitude conditions which my flying often entails. And dare I say it, I think an sr22 position would be more “marketable” for the next couple of years for those who would decide to sell. However, when and if a 200 hp turbo-diesel is installed in the SR20, that could change.

To be honest, I don’t care so much about the extra speed. On a typical 350 nm trip it would only make 10 minutes’ difference. It would be the A configuration, as I feel that the Sandel HSI and 55 autopilot are expensive additions that I would just hardly ever need. (Readers of this forum have already seen my tiresome diatribes about the questionable value/utility of an HSI in a plane with THREE color moving maps…)

The SR22 does offer an excellent value compared to any other current production plane with comparable performance which would be $100-200K more. Say g’nite Mooney, Commander, Socata…The Columbia 300 would be more of a competitor, but it doesn’t yet qualify as a “production” plane… CD should keep their lines running well for the next several years with the SR20/22 offerings. They will no doubt sell 100’s, maybe low 1000’s of planes.

So looking ahead, what would it take to sell 10,000’s or more planes? I think “the money is out there,” but GA needs to become more attractive to a broader customer base. CD is already going a long way to overcome the public perception that flying is too dangerous. Advanced avionics are making it easier to navigate and fly. Also needed in GA are (a) increased product quality & reliability, comparable to today’s automobiles; (b) less hassle associated with ownership, operation, storage, etc. (a) has been discussed before here, but (b) not so much.

These days, TIME is as much of a concern to the potential larger market segment as money. For those of us for whom flying is a PASSION, it’s a labor of love :-). For the potential broader market, the time which one has to spend on looking after an airplane and its care, feeding, storage, and maintenance are discouraging factors I’m sure. What do you folks all think? I have wondered whether small airplane MANAGED fractional ownerships, or higher-end flying clubs (what the hell, let’s say $800-1000/month membership, then pay only for fuel; planes maintained to near-part 135 standards and kept clean; serious recurrency requirements for members) would bring a lot more people into GA. GA needs this to happen.

  • Very much agree with your description of the overall market-strategy situation.

  • This would be my rule-of-thumb for the 22/20 choice: is most of your flying east or west of the 100th parallel?

    On the eastern side, the distances are typically shorter, the terrain is dramatically lower, and (with obvious exceptions) the climate is often cooler.

    On the west, the reverse.

    So I would think that the 20 would be the “default” choice east of 100-degrees, and the 22 would be the default choice on the west. Of course purchasers in either region might choose something other than the default, based on finance, their particular missions, etc.

I received my SR22 package a day or two ago. It looks to me like an accomodating offer for SR20 position holders. As I see it they are offering current sr20 customers the chance to “step up,” using their existing contract price–not the present SR20 price for new customers–as the basis for determining their SR22 price. (If I read it correctly the CPI inflation rider clock does start ticking again, though–am I wrong?). I think CD didn’t have to do this and I appreciate the gesture. It does benefit both customers who would like increased performance and CD who would like (need?) increased margins.

My guess is that at least half of current SR20 orders will convert to the SR22. Especially out west, the increased load-carrying capability and improved density altitude performance will make it a real family airplane which can go almost anywhere under most altitude and temperature conditions. As for me, I will probably convert my position, given the loads and density altitude conditions which my flying often entails. And dare I say it, I think an sr22 position would be more “marketable” for the next couple of years for those who would decide to sell. However, when and if a 200 hp turbo-diesel is installed in the SR20, that could change.

To be honest, I don’t care so much about the extra speed. On a typical 350 nm trip it would only make 10 minutes’ difference. It would be the A configuration, as I feel that the Sandel HSI and 55 autopilot are expensive additions that I would just hardly ever need. (Readers of this forum have already seen my tiresome diatribes about the questionable value/utility of an HSI in a plane with THREE color moving maps…)

The SR22 does offer an excellent value compared to any other current production plane with comparable performance which would be $100-200K more. Say g’nite Mooney, Commander, Socata…The Columbia 300 would be more of a competitor, but it doesn’t yet qualify as a “production” plane… CD should keep their lines running well for the next several years with the SR20/22 offerings. They will no doubt sell 100’s, maybe low 1000’s of planes.

So looking ahead, what would it take to sell 10,000’s or more planes? I think “the money is out there,” but GA needs to become more attractive to a broader customer base. CD is already going a long way to overcome the public perception that flying is too dangerous. Advanced avionics are making it easier to navigate and fly. Also needed in GA are (a) increased product quality & reliability, comparable to today’s automobiles; (b) less hassle associated with ownership, operation, storage, etc. (a) has been discussed before here, but (b) not so much.

These days, TIME is as much of a concern to the potential larger market segment as money. For those of us for whom flying is a PASSION, it’s a labor of love :-). For the potential broader market, the time which one has to spend on looking after an airplane and its care, feeding, storage, and maintenance are discouraging factors I’m sure. What do you folks all think? I have wondered whether small airplane MANAGED fractional ownerships, or higher-end flying clubs (what the hell, let’s say $800-1000/month membership, then pay only for fuel; planes maintained to near-part 135 standards and kept clean; serious recurrency requirements for members) would bring a lot more people into GA. GA needs this to happen.

I agree with Jim’s post. Much of my planned Cirrus mission involves crossing mountains and operating out of high and hot places. As Kevin will attest, I have been concerned about how the SR20 would fare in many tight situations out here. The relatively high Vy of the SR20 combined with the meager climb rate at altitude could make things more exciting than I would prefer. So right now I’m leaning towards the SR22. I just have to look around my bank account for the extra $$ !!

  • Very much agree with your description of the overall market-strategy situation.
  • This would be my rule-of-thumb for the 22/20 choice: is most of your flying east or west of the 100th parallel?

To save a lot of smart a_ _ responses, I am sure the author meant the 100W meridian since there is no 100th parallel and they run East-West. Very good logic on the 20/22 decision. mdz

On the eastern side, the distances are typically shorter, the terrain is dramatically lower, and (with obvious exceptions) the climate is often cooler.

On the west, the reverse.

So I would think that the 20 would be the “default” choice east of 100-degrees, and the 22 would be the default choice on the west. Of course purchasers in either region might choose something other than the default, based on finance, their particular missions, etc.

Yes, ‘parallel’ is what my fingers typed while my brain was looking for ‘meridian.’ thx

Yes, ‘parallel’ is what my fingers typed while my brain was looking for ‘meridian.’ thx

Well Jim you’re like the rest of us: our brains are all becoming poorer at “parallel processing.”