Understand that we have some forum members who react emotionally to any implied criticism of CD’s performance. However, I think an occassional dose of reality does us all some good.
A comparison of 1Q actual production with Ian Bentley’s 2/14/01 forecast for 1Q is the case in point.
Actual: 24 (127 4/1/01 vs 103 1/1/01) Fcst: 36 (12 / month in 1Q per IBs 2/14/01 note to customers) Shortfall: 12 = 33% of forecast or 50% of actual, whichever you prefer. Forecast error is actually even larger when you consider that 1/2 the quarter was already over when the forecast was made! After a year of production, I would have expected an organization which really understood the challenges facing it to be able to make a better forecast, at the very least.
This simply reinforces the concern that CD still doesn’t have its arms around the complexity of volume production of the SR20/22. The failure to replace senior production management since early January raises similar issues. While the anecdotal evidence about lower hours per wing etc would sound encouraging, still doesn’t seem to have made it to the bottom line – actual output.
Unless IB gives us anther update, the forecast for the next few months is 20+/month (1/day). It will be interesting to see whether they can achieve this - or are we looking at more like 15- / month? And Alan K’s “something over 300 aircraft this year” sounds more and more like Alan G’s “irrational exuberance”.
On a positive note, does anyone know if the long rumored “institutional” equity participation / cash injection went through 3/31/01? If so, that should buy CD mgt some time to get their arms around the production problems. If not . . .