Anyone think it's worth it to invest in SR-20 &quotfutures&quot?

I currently have a position in the mid-400’s for the $179,400 price. After seeing the price increase (with more to come each year or so), the increasing waiting period for a position, the lack of similarly priced/similarly capable light aircraft, etc., I’m beginning to think it might be worth it to purchase an additional position…

With new C-172’s at $180K and new PA-28’s at $200K, I think the true value of a SR-20 is close to $225-$250K. In the next two years, with popularity of the SR-20 having grown (and with the ability to use a SR-20 position to preferentially jump into the future SR-22 list), I’d think someone who couldn’t wait to get one would easily pay $20-$25K in premium to have it now (above whatever the current price is at the time). And with the deposit still at $15K, it seemas possible to double or triple that in just a couple of years by investing now…

Anyone have any ideas/recommendations on this line of reasoning?

I currently have a position in the mid-400’s for the $179,400 price. After seeing the price increase (with more to come each year or so), the increasing waiting period for a position, the lack of similarly priced/similarly capable light aircraft, etc., I’m beginning to think it might be worth it to purchase an additional position…

With new C-172’s at $180K and new PA-28’s at $200K, I think the true value of a SR-20 is close to $225-$250K. In the next two years, with popularity of the SR-20 having grown (and with the ability to use a SR-20 position to preferentially jump into the future SR-22 list), I’d think someone who couldn’t wait to get one would easily pay $20-$25K in premium to have it now (above whatever the current price is at the time). And with the deposit still at $15K, it seemas possible to double or triple that in just a couple of years by investing now…

Anyone have any ideas/recommendations on this line of reasoning?

As long as Cirrus continues to have such a liberal contract policy (and the demand continues to be high and the lead time long) it would seem that the worst you could do is park your $15K for awhile and get it back, unless you really couldn’t find a buyer (unlikely as long as forums such as this exist to make a market.)

I suspect that Cirrus will eventually stop honoring transfer requests (after all, the contracts do say that they are non-transferrable) as it’s a paperwork headache for them and it isn’t really fair to the folks who have been waiting in line behind the position changing hands.

I’ve seen a couple of ways that this plays out if the contracts aren’t transferrable.

I have friends who are off in Wichita taking delivery on a new aircraft that was ordered by someone else. The factory is going along with the deal, since the original buyer decided to buy something bigger from them, but even so the original buyer’s name remains on the contract and the transfer will take place on the ramp at the time of delivery. The original buyer had to provide a limited power of attorney to my friends so that they could choose interiors and such to their liking. If the buyer hadn’t been trading up, but was just speculating (or getting cold feet), the factory would not have played along with this and it would have been more problematic.

I’ve also seen things like '99 King Airs with 50 hours on them up for sale. I’m told that these are often planes ordered by speculators with the expectation that the factory would raise prices. When this didn’t take place, they got stuck with the airplane and a serious loss (which only gets worse as time goes on and they can’t find a buyer and the plane depreciates sitting in the hangar).

I expect that sooner or later that Cirrus will put a stop to this practice, as the only benefit to them was the goodwill it engendered (which is less important as they continue to deliver aircraft).

Meantime, my position #72 can be had for a $100K premium. :wink:

I think your crazy to think there’s not something better to do with 15 grand for three years. Whether or not Cirrus changes it’s policy on transfers, you may well see no real price ioncrease (its not real if it’s not the same plane for the new price, as in the last raise). Also, there have been very few planes built and already we’re seeing quite a few of them sold off. I expect to see much more of this and the premiums go way down, if there remains a premium at all. After all, what are you going to do if you find that you can’t really afford your plane when the time comes, and there’s alreay 5 other spots up for sale, half of which are before yours in line? It may have been a good idea for the first couple hundred, but back then it was really speculative that this plane would ever get built. Now they’re getting paid for the real risk they took… typically the world doesn’t pay for no risk deals like the one you’re suggesting.

My two cents, Landon