Post-Sept. 11 GA

Guest Discussion
1

Looking beyond the next couple of months…

The world that emerges after cataclysmic events is always different. Just ask the dinosaurs. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, despite the slow return of access to the National Airspace, I am myself actually inclined to be optimistic about GA’s medium-long term prospects.

No-radio, no-transponder flying in class E airspace–maybe class G too–is probably a thing of the past. I won’t miss it.

The increased security hassle, inconvenience, and expense of big-plane airline travel will predispose more folks to consider the small-is-beautiful aternative that GA offers and Jim described in Free Flight. Note the recently announced order for 1000 Eclipse jets by Nimbus Group, who are apparently willing to bet nearly a billion $ on this possibility.

Smaller planes are much less dangerous weapons in any scenario similar to that of Sept. 11. Even charter & bizjets could be equipped with panic-land -automatically-at-the-nearest-airport buttons.

Longer term, if real or perceived threats of terrorist operations continue to be a concern, the trend towards living in less densely populated areas will accelerate. It’s much easier to serve the transportation needs of such a society with smaller planes than with jumbo jets.

What do you folks think? I hope I’m right, just before Sept. 11 I committed significant $$ towards a new 260SE! :slight_smile:

2

Kevin,

I’ve been thinking along much the same lines. Of course, it’s hard to know what all the variables are, but I’ve already seen examples of people electing to fly small GA airplanes to their destination, rather than “risk” being on an airliner. In at least one case, the passenger is/was uneasy about GA flight.

There is much to contemplate. I would not be surprised to see background checks required for all applicants for licenses - to drive not only airplanes, but cars and boats too. We now have to acknowledge that any vehicle can be abused as a weapon.

Whatever direction it takes, I’ll embrace anything we need to remain secure as a nation – but hope that it doesn’t preclude continued flying for the Enthusiasts; like you, I’ll even dare hope that somehow we’ll reverse the current trend towards closing existing GA airports, and hope instead to see a resurgence of common sense.

  • Mike.

Looking beyond the next couple of months…

The world that emerges after cataclysmic events is always different. Just ask the dinosaurs. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, despite the slow return of access to the National Airspace, I am myself actually inclined to be optimistic about GA’s medium-long term prospects.

No-radio, no-transponder flying in class E airspace–maybe class G too–is probably a thing of the past. I won’t miss it.

The increased security hassle, inconvenience, and expense of big-plane airline travel will predispose more folks to consider the small-is-beautiful aternative that GA offers and Jim described in Free Flight. Note the recently announced order for 1000 Eclipse jets by Nimbus Group, who are apparently willing to bet nearly a billion $ on this possibility.

Smaller planes are much less dangerous weapons in any scenario similar to that of Sept. 11. Even charter & bizjets could be equipped with panic-land -automatically-at-the-nearest-airport buttons.

Longer term, if real or perceived threats of terrorist operations continue to be a concern, the trend towards living in less densely populated areas will accelerate. It’s much easier to serve the transportation needs of such a society with smaller planes than with jumbo jets.

What do you folks think? I hope I’m right, just before Sept. 11 I committed significant $$ towards a new 260SE! :slight_smile:

3

Kevin, Mike,

I don’t want to sound too much like a pessimist, but, well, I’m pessimistic!

I think if anything, the last few weeks have shown that GA (part 91 operators) are pretty much at the bottom of the totem pole as far as aviation groups go.

There are still, even two weeks after the tragedy, lots of folks grounded. Most VFR pilots near major metropolitan areas (i.e. enhanced class B), all GA pilots near DC & NYC, etc.

The airlines were the first to be back in the air and the only group, along with charter operators, who are not restricted in some manner (except for DCA closed). Charters were next, and part 91 ops are still not restored.

My hope is that eventually, things will get back to “normal” (except for the many folks who lose their jobs and FBOs/flight schools forced to close down) within a short time.

But my fear is that if there are ever any other aviation related terrorist acts (or even suspected terrorist acts – I believe a lot of extra security went into effect even after TWA800), GA will again take the brunt of the regulatory action, whether it was a GA aircraft involved, or an airline, or a charter, etc.

I don’t even want to think about what would happen to us if there is a terrorist act in a part 91 aircraft any time soon.

So – besides the very obvious reason of hoping for no further terrorist attacks, I’m especially hoping, if there is one, that it doesn’t come from the air…

Just my random thoughts…

Steve

(who just got checked out in a rental 172 this morning because my SR20 is still grounded due to this mess, with no word on when it’ll be able to be flown again…)

Looking beyond the next couple of months…

The world that emerges after cataclysmic events is always different. Just ask the dinosaurs. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, despite the slow return of access to the National Airspace, I am myself actually inclined to be optimistic about GA’s medium-long term prospects.

No-radio, no-transponder flying in class E airspace–maybe class G too–is probably a thing of the past. I won’t miss it.

The increased security hassle, inconvenience, and expense of big-plane airline travel will predispose more folks to consider the small-is-beautiful aternative that GA offers and Jim described in Free Flight. Note the recently announced order for 1000 Eclipse jets by Nimbus Group, who are apparently willing to bet nearly a billion $ on this possibility.

Smaller planes are much less dangerous weapons in any scenario similar to that of Sept. 11. Even charter & bizjets could be equipped with panic-land -automatically-at-the-nearest-airport buttons.

Longer term, if real or perceived threats of terrorist operations continue to be a concern, the trend towards living in less densely populated areas will accelerate. It’s much easier to serve the transportation needs of such a society with smaller planes than with jumbo jets.

What do you folks think? I hope I’m right, just before Sept. 11 I committed significant $$ towards a new 260SE! :slight_smile:

4

Kevin —

You would be right on every count if – if – the market had any say about it.

But in GA’s case, the market is trumped by regulation, and regulation is a blunt and often dumb instrument. It ratchets one way: just look at those 1970s-era procedures regarding hijackings. They prevailed right up until 9-11.

Think of those useless two questions that must be asked by every ticket counter agent.

Think of the FAA’s private pilot checkride that insists on soft-field landing technique but asks nothing of GPS proficiency.

It makes you weep.

Looking beyond the next couple of months…

The world that emerges after cataclysmic events is always different. Just ask the dinosaurs. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, despite the slow return of access to the National Airspace, I am myself actually inclined to be optimistic about GA’s medium-long term prospects.

No-radio, no-transponder flying in class E airspace–maybe class G too–is probably a thing of the past. I won’t miss it.

The increased security hassle, inconvenience, and expense of big-plane airline travel will predispose more folks to consider the small-is-beautiful aternative that GA offers and Jim described in Free Flight. Note the recently announced order for 1000 Eclipse jets by Nimbus Group, who are apparently willing to bet nearly a billion $ on this possibility.

Smaller planes are much less dangerous weapons in any scenario similar to that of Sept. 11. Even charter & bizjets could be equipped with panic-land -automatically-at-the-nearest-airport buttons.

Longer term, if real or perceived threats of terrorist operations continue to be a concern, the trend towards living in less densely populated areas will accelerate. It’s much easier to serve the transportation needs of such a society with smaller planes than with jumbo jets.

What do you folks think? I hope I’m right, just before Sept. 11 I committed significant $$ towards a new 260SE! :slight_smile:

5

I’m not sure the Free Flight vision is going to get its boost from this. Today I heard Jim F on NPR, and as he mentioned the potential boost for small air taxi services, the interviewer interjected “Of course they will need to be secured as well.” Jim agreed, but we all know there is no chance of providing the kind of absolute security guarantees that people are looking for today. People are looking up and seeing every airplane as a potential threat. We need to tread lightly until the media spotlight relaxes.

-Curt

6

It’s much easier to serve the transportation needs of such a society with smaller planes than with jumbo jets.

The air carriers have 19,145 planes, fly 20.5 million hours, use 943 airports, and produce 701.8 million passenger miles. GA on the on the other hand has 10 times as many planes, flys 50% more hours, uses 20 times more airports, and only produces 14% of the passenger miles produced by the air carriers. Small planes are the least efficient means of serving the air travel needs of this country. If they were eliminated completely, we could significantly reduce the size of ATC, eliminate 19,000 airports (the anti airport types would love this), and make it much easier for the security types to track everything in the sky.

The only hope for GA is to keep a low profile until the security concerns are no longer front page news. Flying is a luxuary and will eventually be fashionable again. But if we make too much of a pest of ourselves with the current public mood, we will find a severly restricted GA is the new “normal” environment

7

There are already people gunning for GA. This 9/19 report made the newswires…

=====

Paul Hudson, director of the Aviation Consumer Action Project, points out: “Over the weekend the FAA lifted the ban on general aviation [private aircraft] except within 25 miles of New York City and Washington, D.C. With about 1 million private planes in the U.S. and little or no security in place, the risk of terrorists using such planes with explosives to attack large or government buildings requires temporary restrictions.” Hudson wants general aviation to be banned to within 100 miles of major cities or likely terrorist targets.

I personally believe GA prospects are good unless there is a GA-related terrorist incident, in which case we are toast.

Gordon

Looking beyond the next couple of months…

The world that emerges after cataclysmic events is always different. Just ask the dinosaurs. In the aftermath of Sept. 11, despite the slow return of access to the National Airspace, I am myself actually inclined to be optimistic about GA’s medium-long term prospects.

No-radio, no-transponder flying in class E airspace–maybe class G too–is probably a thing of the past. I won’t miss it.

The increased security hassle, inconvenience, and expense of big-plane airline travel will predispose more folks to consider the small-is-beautiful aternative that GA offers and Jim described in Free Flight. Note the recently announced order for 1000 Eclipse jets by Nimbus Group, who are apparently willing to bet nearly a billion $ on this possibility.

Smaller planes are much less dangerous weapons in any scenario similar to that of Sept. 11. Even charter & bizjets could be equipped with panic-land -automatically-at-the-nearest-airport buttons.

Longer term, if real or perceived threats of terrorist operations continue to be a concern, the trend towards living in less densely populated areas will accelerate. It’s much easier to serve the transportation needs of such a society with smaller planes than with jumbo jets.

What do you folks think? I hope I’m right, just before Sept. 11 I committed significant $$ towards a new 260SE! :slight_smile:

8

… and hope instead to see a resurgence of common sense.

Mike.

Talk about “…a resurgence of common sense”, and one begins to wonder if there is any. In today’s (9/23/01) Washington Post it was reported that there are four or five groups of al Qaeda affiliated Middle Easterners that have been identified here in the U.S. They’ve been here for a couple of years.

Since their leader - bin Laden - has sworn jihad against the U.S., and has written that his people are to kill Americans, doesn’t it seem odd that 4 or 5 groups just happened to come to the U.S. in the past two years? Maybe they came to see all the tourist sites and go to Disney World, right? Or maybe they are sampling all the fine American foods so they can open up an authentic American restaurant in Kabul, right?

The Washington Post article was silent as to whether or not the groups have been detained or effectively neutralized. Unbelievably, since they have been living here peacefully and legally, no-one is apparently taking action to remove them.

Where in the world is “common sense” in this situation? Hell, al Qaeda has committed an act of war, and these birds are still allowed to walk around as if nothing happened. Perhaps the “common sense” being applied is that as long as they remain here and at large, that will be a sensible reason to continue to lock down GA because some of the al Qaeda members may be pilots.

Security is vital, of course, and so is TRUE common sense. Lock ö up; they’re here for no good reason. And then, free GA.

Pete

and hope instead to see a resurgence of common sense.

  • Mike.
9

Kevin, Mike,

I don’t want to sound too much like a pessimist, but, well, I’m pessimistic!

I think if anything, the last few weeks have shown that GA (part 91 operators) are pretty much at the bottom of the totem pole as far as aviation groups go.

They are burried under the totem pole. And always will be as long as GA is viewed as a luxury (which it is) – to the non-flying citizens of this country hearing that we can’t fly is like hearing somebody can’t take their 80ft yacht out. The tragedy being that simply by having wings on our vehicles we are somehow considered more or less the same as a 767. The truth is while that 767 was zipping along at 400kts with fighters racing to intercept, a similar 172 would have been blistering along at 110kts - far close to the speed of a nice van - which also would carry as much of anything dangerous - and be able to get into FAR more insidious places than a 172.

The bottom line is to an average citizen our sky is now filled with bombs. It doesn’t matter how big it is. We will have to get over this fear before we enjoy Free Flight

10

There are already people gunning for GA. This 9/19 report made the newswires…

=====

Paul Hudson, director of the Aviation Consumer Action Project, points out: “Over the weekend the FAA lifted the ban on general aviation [private aircraft] except within 25 miles of New York City and Washington, D.C. With about 1 million private planes in the U.S. and little or no security in place, the risk of terrorists using such planes with explosives to attack large or government buildings requires temporary restrictions.” Hudson wants general aviation to be banned to within 100 miles of major cities or likely terrorist targets.

I personally believe GA prospects are good unless there is a GA-related terrorist incident, in which case we are toast.

Gordon

I am starting to think the whole world is crazy. For one day someone exploits a hole in the system and all of a sudden people have lost their minds. If we were to follow that ban - forget it. Again, why not ban trucks from manhattan after all a van was used by Mcveigh. Why not examine every driving school? Maybe we should track every stolen vehicle - because who knows when someone will steal one, drive into a tunnel and blow that up.

Terrorists only succeed if we make unecessary changes/sacrificing our freedom. Again, GA has never been used by these people - and frankly - is not nearly as appealing as so many other things they could use. Put it this way, they had their private licenses for years - perhaps several dozen of them. Did they use GA for their terror?

11

Dean, couldn’t agree with you more. The exception has now become the “rule”? That’s giving in to terrorism, not rising above it. I vote for returning to pre 9-11-01 but with REAL SECURITY!

However I just heard a local news story (Palm Beach,FL) and there is an investigation into some of the suspected hijackers visiting a remote airstrip (Belle Glade, FL) and asking all about crop dusters - range, payload,etc Further the so-called ring leader, Atta, was looking into financing a crop duster.

I am starting to think the whole world is crazy. For one day someone exploits a hole in the system and all of a sudden people have lost their minds. If we were to follow that ban - forget it. Again, why not ban trucks from manhattan after all a van was used by Mcveigh. Why not examine every driving school? Maybe we should track every stolen vehicle - because who knows when someone will steal one, drive into a tunnel and blow that up.

Terrorists only succeed if we make unecessary changes/sacrificing our freedom. Again, GA has never been used by these people - and frankly - is not nearly as appealing as so many other things they could use. Put it this way, they had their private licenses for years - perhaps several dozen of them. Did they use GA for their terror?